This Is How Musk's Entire Empire Dies

The end is nigh for Tesla, X, xAI, and SpaceX.

I don’t have a crystal ball. Heavens knows I want one — my God, the mistakes I could have avoided. But fortunately, I have the next best thing: the uncanny autistic trait to recognise patterns and make eerily accurate predictions for the future. It’s like my personal spider-sense, except it also makes me socially inept. I guess it also makes Robert F. Kennedy Jr. my version of J. Jonah Jameson. However, after writing about Musk for years, my senses are tingling. I can see something biblical on the horizon for Musk that will destroy his entire empire. And, even better, I am ready to put my mark in the sand and publicly state when each of his companies will fall.

Let’s start with Tesla. It’s fair to say that Tesla has been having a pretty hard time recently, with the company experiencing huge sales boycotts and their competition overtaking them in every conceivable way. But only now are we beginning to see the true impact of these problems. Tesla just posted its quarterly earnings, which are 71% down from last year! Also, a leaked internal report from Tesla higher-ups has revealed that the upcoming Cybercab will never make any money, even if, by some miracle, they manage to get it to work (read more here).

Just these two facts alone are enough to kill Tesla.

Tesla is only so valuable because it is seen as an AI company, not a car company, due to its fictional self-driving advantage. Multiple corporate investors have speculated that its robotaxi could multiply the company’s already sky-high value tenfold and accrue trillions of dollars in annual revenue. But reality is beginning to settle in. The Cybercab is too dangerous to pass regulations (read more here), and even if it did, we now know that it wouldn’t make any money.

As soon as investors realise this fact themselves, they will value Tesla like a car company. In a previous article (read more here), I explained how Tesla’s falling sales, combined with this more accurate valuation, would cause the company to lose more than 90% of its value and enter negative equity — in other words, become functionally bankrupt. However, in that example, I assumed profits would only fall by 45%, which was way off the mark! This 71% profit drop is gargantuan by comparison, and Tesla has no way of rectifying this situation. This isn’t “Tesla could die”; this is “Tesla will be obliterated”.

In other words, Tesla’s fate is sealed. All it will take is the market to recognise reality. When will that happen? Well, when the AI bubble bursts, which brings me onto the next pillar of Musk’s empire: xAI. xAI currently owns the now functionally bankrupt X/Twitter, and both of these companies will crumble when Tesla does.

There is a giant AI bubble that is virtually identical to the dot-com bubble of the ’90s. Over a third of venture capital is going to AI. AI companies are loaded with low-interest debt. No major AI company has a viable route to profitability. Even OpenAI, the largest AI company by far, is expected to post an annual loss of over $14 billion next year and annual losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars in coming years. This isn’t just a bubble — it’s a ripe one, raring to pop.

But what will be thing to pop it? Well, the dot-com bubble was burst by inflation, causing interest rates to rise, which in turn made borrowing expensive. Investors who had piled millions of dollars into new internet businesses with no route to profitability panicked and sold their shares or pulled their loans, causing the bubble to burst and bankrupting most online companies.

The same is set to happen again. Trump’s moronic economic policies are already causing inflation, which will only get worse with time. The Federal Reserve System has publicly raised concerns that it will have to increase interest rates to curb this inflation, and with Trump being unwilling to change course, this seems inevitable. When this happens, it will cause the AI bubble to pop, as investors will be forced to rethink their investments, pull their loans, and leave these money-draining businesses high and dry. Then, in order to pay off these gargantuan debts, OpenAI, xAI, and almost every single AI company will have to allow the bailiffs to liquidate whatever assets they have. Tesla’s fictional value will drop to that of a car company, placing it in a huge negative equity hole, meaning it will be the bailiffs’ next stop.

When will this happen? From what I can see, interest rates won’t increase until next year, so I think the AI bubble will likely burst in late 2026. xAI and Tesla will die in 2027, possibly early 2028.

But what about SpaceX?

Well, Starship and Starlink have buried SpaceX in a hole it simply can’t escape.

As I have written about previously (read here), Starship will never work. The concept is too flawed. It can’t take enough payload to orbit, especially when considering that the old Falcon Heavy could carry more weight. As recent tests have shown, reusing the final stage is functionally impossible, which means that Starship is also significantly more expensive than the Falcon Heavy. This, in turn, means it cannot fulfil its contracts as a lunar lander or promise of a Mars lander. It is literally a very expensive rocket to nowhere.

SpaceX has already sunk more than $5 billion into Starship, with much of that being debt, and Musk has been quoted as saying that the costs before Starship even enters operation could be significantly more than $10 billion — if it ever actually enters operation. How can SpaceX pay back this huge amount of capital if Starship never works?

You might suggest Starlink, but no. It was designed for the mythical $10 million launch costs of the Starship. Given that the satellites are currently being launched by the more real and more expensive Falcon 9, Starlink isn’t even breaking even. And, with the world boycotting Starlink to avoid succumbing to Musk’s political blackmail, Starlink is set never to reach profitability. This is a huge problem, as Starlink accounts for more than 66% of SpaceX launches, and it’s not like the space launch market is growing. That means less than half of SpaceX’s launches actually generate any profit. So, as it stands, for SpaceX to pay back the capital they have already spent on Starship, it would take a whopping 34 years (read more here)! That doesn’t include the interest for any of the loans, the capital spent on Starlink, or the billions of more dollars Musk will spend on these idiotic projects in the coming years.

And this problem is only worsened by the competition closing in. Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is the same price as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and offers double the payload capacity. It is also set to be certified for human space flight and capable of landing a crewed lunar lander. Moreover, its design isn’t as bonkers as Starship’s, as it uses already proven technology, so it will likely reach full operation years before Starship. This will no doubt spell unfortunate things for SpaceX when it comes to market share.

So, this is how I see things playing out. SpaceX will fail to sort Starship out and will pile even more money into its development, all while Starlink makes zero cash. Blue Origin and other companies will begin taking up more and more of the market, particularly for human space flight and NASA’s Artemis missions. Eventually, the squeeze will become too much, and SpaceX will default on its debt and either go bankrupt or be bailed out. Either way, SpaceX will no longer be Musk’s. It’s hard to predict when this might happen, given that we don’t have access to the financial details of SpaceX. But I think you could consider it a safe bet that this will happen well before 2030. After all, SpaceX doesn’t have tens of billions of dollars at hand to keep the wolves from the door, particularly once Tesla’s value evaporates.

That is my prediction. Musk’s empire will fall in two blows: the first when the AI bubble bursts and eradicates Tesla, xAI, and Twitter/X, and the second when SpaceX drowns in debt before the decade’s end. Admittedly, I don’t own a crystal ball and I am not an economist, so take my predictions with a pinch of salt. But I have yet to see any credible evidence that Musk’s empire can survive to see the 2030s. And you know what? It couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

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Sources: ABC, Will Lockett, Will Lockett, Will Lockett, Blue Origin, CNN, Will Lockett, The Guardian, Macrotrends, TMF, Britannica, Will Lockett, Will Lockett