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I Hate this Timeline's avatar

Edit. 3.5% sustained participation is powerful and one can be hopeful of overturning a fascist regime. Emphasis on sustained, and powerful, not guaranteed.

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John Quiggin's avatar

I don't think this result holds in general. There's an underlying assumption that the 3.5% protesting represent an overwhelming majority of the population who dislike the regime but are afraid to march against it. That's not the case in the US.

Trump's support among Republicans remains rock-solid. He's about as popular as he was a year into his first term, and he now has much more capacity to rig elections. Unless something big happens (AI crash, for example), or he dies, he'll last well past 2028.

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I Hate this Timeline's avatar

Have you read Chenowith's writing or listened to her speak? Years of research, by a Harvard scholar generated this finding. It literally isn't an assumption. It is a possibility, so those who care are trying. Wonder what you are doing to make change happen?

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John Quiggin's avatar

I’m in Australia, trying to work out how we can disengage from Trump.

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I Hate this Timeline's avatar

Still suggest you listen to her work directly.

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pat bahn's avatar

There are lots of pissed off soybean and beef farmers now

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John Quiggin's avatar

If there is one thing I am absolutely sure of it is that white farmers will vote Republican no matter how often they get screwed over. Trump did them down last time, and still got ~90 per cent support.

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Sko Hayes's avatar

MAGA will never leave him, but groups that swung to him in 2024, young men, Latinos, etc are deserting him.

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John Quiggin's avatar

Agreed, but the entire Republican base is MAGA now, and controls SC, state legislatures etc. Trump can rig things well enough to hold power with 40 per cent support.

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Sko Hayes's avatar

The "base" is about 27% of voters. I live in a red state, a farm state, oil and gas state and Trump is screwing these people over like no tomorrow.

Will he still win red states like mine? Probably, there's about twice as many registered Republicans than Democrats here, but purple states could be a real challenge (see MTG in Georgia, for example).

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