WW3 Could Save The World If It Doesn't Destroy It
The weird economics of war.
Unless you have been living under a rock for the past few months, you undoubtedly have heard of the horrific events happening in the Middle East. Well, over the past few days, this conflict has massively escalated. It started when Israel attacked Iran’s embassy in Syria, which is considered an act of war. Iran quickly retaliated, hurling 300 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles at Israel, which it technically has the right to do under the UN Charter Article 51. Tensions between these two countries seem set to boil over, as neither side appears willing to de-escalate threats or actions, and like the bullet that took out Archduke Franz Ferdinand, all-out war between these two countries could kick off a World War, except this time it will be nuclear. However, there may be a silver lining to this horrifying mushroom cloud.
Okay, so how can a war between Israel and Iran spark WW3? Well, Israel is closely allied with the West, namely almost all of Europe, the UK, the US, Canada and Australia. Meanwhile, Iran has been deepening its ties with Russia and China for years now, as well as being a close ally of Syria, which is very close to both Russia and China. What’s more, Israel and Iran hold significant geopolitical utility in these relationships. The West uses Israel as a tool to keep OPEC in check and secure their oil imports (more on that in a minute), and China imports a substantial amount of its oil from Iran; meanwhile, Russia is engaged in dodgy oil exchanges with Iran to get around sanctions. So, these larger countries have a substantial interest in ensuring their Middle East partner wins this conflict. As such, if an out-and-out war breaks out between Israel and Iran, then all these larger, more powerful, and more deadly proxy countries could join the fight, dragging almost the entire world into a conflict.
However, it isn’t like Iran and Israel aren’t insanely deadly on their own. While Israel has never formally admitted it has nuclear weapons, for a litany of political reasons that are far from moral, experts are damn sure they have between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads, each capable of rendering a city a wasteland. Iran, on the other hand, has had a far harder time getting its atomic program up and going. However, recent investigations suggest they have enough nuclear material and the enrichment ability to create 3–5 fission nuclear warheads. But let’s also not forget that the US has 5,244 nuclear warheads, China has 410, and Russia has 5,580. So, the possibility for this war to break out into a world war and then a global nuclear war that effectively ends the world is definitely not zero. Particularly when you consider who is/could be leading these countries.
Even in the best-case scenario, the death, destruction and suffering this escalating Israeli-Iranian war will dish out is utterly heinous. It should never happen, end of discussion. But, if we are going to barrel into this disaster, we need to know what we could be in for. You see, the geopolitical pressure this war could create can have some surprising and far-reaching effects.
Remember how I said we would talk about OPEC? Well, five of the world’s top ten oil exporters are in the Middle East, namely Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE. All of these countries are major players in OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries), an intergovernmental organisation of major oil producers who work together to influence the oil market. OPEC sets the price, production rates, and market agreements of its member states.
Well, not only is Iran a part of OPEC, but the lead country in the organisation, Saudi Arabia, supports the creation of a Palestinian state along its 1967 borders and condemns Israel’s current actions in the region. In fact, in 1973, when US-backed Israeli expansion into Palestinian territory, Saudi Arabia set an OPEC oil embargo against the US, blocking the country from importing any of their oil. This created an economic downturn in the US and made the price of fuel so expensive that Americans ditched their domestically produced gas guzzlers for efficient economy cars from Japan.
Now, Saudi Arabia and Iran are far from allies and have their own geopolitical tensions. They are also now more Western-leaning than many other Muslim Middle Eastern countries. However, the current horrors taking place in Gaza are pushing them closer to Russia and China, and their OPEC duties will encourage them to be protective of Iran against Israel.
So, if this Israeli-Iranian war were to break out, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that OPEC would side with Iran and put another oil embargo on the West. But, even if this doesn’t come to pass, war at this scale in the Middle East could significantly impact oil exports from the region and make oil production far from reliable, which could have a similarly devastating impact on the global oil and gas market.
Back in the 70s, we had no option but to keep using oil and gas and whether the market storm. But that isn’t the case today; we have renewables, commercially viable grid-level energy storage, wide-scale nuclear power and EVs. These forms of energy are not only environmentally friendly and cheap but also super secure and independent (i.e. you don’t need to import fuel from a possible enemy to generate solar power). So, to secure our energy needs and protect our economies from the fallout of this potential WW3, it seems likely we would double down on renewables and rapidly phase out our reliance on fossil fuels.
This is the silver lining. This potential war could disrupt oil and gas so much that our governments have no choice but to adopt low-carbon technology at the rapid rate that we should be doing anyway to save the planet. However, there is a chance this won’t matter if the nuclear bombs start to drop.
Now, I want to make it crystal clear that I do not want this to happen, and this is far from a rock-soil prediction if an Israeli-Iranian war does break out. But sometimes, pulling a loose thread and seeing what unwinds is interesting. My scenario also has its faults. The West has basically zero domestic renewables production and relies on imports from China, which could dry up if tensions between China and the West are strained. At the very least, it’s a damning indictment that WW3 could be one of the few forces that could make our governments take the climate action they should have taken years ago.
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Sources: Irish Star, 8AM Media, The Week, EIA, Britannica, News Week