Was Test Flight 10 A Success?

It's not as simple as yes or no.

Photo by nader saremi on Unsplash

The BBC called Starship’s tenth test flight a “much-needed comeback”. Indeed, much of the internet and media have burst into praise for Musk’s giant rocket. But was this really a comeback? Or should we actually exercise a tiny bit of critical thinking?

Let me be clear, I was deeply impressed by Test Flight 10. It completely smashed my expectations. For the first time, a Starship delivered a dummy payload at orbital speeds. Likewise, the Super Heavy Booster tested a new shallow angle of attack landing, which uses more rocket thrust to slow down than atmospheric drag, and the test went really well. All small but important steps forward.

Starship met every one of its mission objectives on this test flight, which is in stark contrast with its past few flights, which ended in spectacular failure.

So, is that it? Has Starship turned a corner? Should we no longer consider it a colossally pointless death trap? Next stop Mars?

No. Not at all. This is where that critical thinking comes in. This test flight was far from flawless, and with the context of its mission, it is actually a huge disappointment.

The biggest issues with Starship are its rocket engines and fuel system. Essentially, they keep failing and shutting down, or directly exploding and destroying the entire vehicle. Why? Well, we can only speculate. However, SpaceX has acknowledged that the Raptor engine is producing significantly less thrust than Musk intended, which severely limits the rocket’s payload. As such, SpaceX appears to be designing the rocket and fuel systems to be much lighter and more fragile than they should be and is pushing the rockets too hard. A perfect recipe for a catastrophic explosion.

Sadly, Test Flight 10 proved this is still a significant issue.

During takeoff, the Super Heavy Booster experienced an engine shutdown. It still managed to get the Starship upper stage up to speed, but Starship was far lighter than it was designed to be (with more on that in a minute). However, when Starship was in space at an altitude of 90 kilometres, an explosion occurred in its engine compartment, severely damaging the aft section of the vehicle.

All of these factors combined suggests that the issue of explosions caused by fuel leaks, flash events in the engines, and the like are still serious concerns during Starship launches. Need I remind you that a large chunk, if not the majority, of funding for Starship is for crewed flight? And no rocket with a noticeable risk of fatal explosion can pass human flight certification.

But remember how I said Starship was lighter?