Trump's Attempted Assassination Isn't The Same As Reagan's
There are crucial differences many are skipping over.
By now, you have heard that Trump survived an assassination attempt over the weekend. I’d love to know your secret to blissful ignorance if you haven’t. As of the time of writing, we know the assailant’s identity, but not his motives. But in the understandable media frenzy that has broken out, a rather interesting narrative is emerging, comparing Trump’s assassination attempt to Reagan’s. After all, Trump is basically just a rehashed extreme version of Reagan, using the exact same campaign slogan, similar political stance, and even using the same advisors as Reagan. As such, many claim Trump will experience the same sweeping bipartisan support that Reagan got after his failed assassination, which not only solidified Reagan’s presidency but played a part in him securing a second term. But, such a comparison and prediction is deeply misleading. Let me explain.
By now, you know the details of the Trump assassination attempt, so I won’t rehash it here. If you do need to scrub up on the horrific event, I highly recommend Reuters coverage.
As for Reagan’s assassination attempt, many of you might need a refresher. Just 69 days after taking office in 1981, 30-year-old John Hinckley shot Reagan, leaving a bullet lodged one inch away from his heart. Reagan had to undergo emergency surgery, and Hinckley was found not guilty by means of insanity.
Before the assassination, the political environment of the US was far from welcoming of Reagan, and his presidency was set to be one of pushing against the establishment. However, impressed by his rounded and calm reaction to the assassination, Reagan received bipartisan support. Not only did his approval ratings go up, but those across the political divide reached out to Reagan. One political journalist even went as far as to claim Reagan was “politically untouchable from that point on.”
This is one of the many reasons Reagan was able to reshape US policies and politics so fundamentally, as many who would have stood in his way (both from within his party and outside) simply didn’t. His now near-mythical image in US society helped him brush off many of the controversies and poor moments of his first term, enabling him to secure a second despite plummeting approval ratings.
With how similar Trump is to Reagan, it’s easy to see why people would suggest that history could repeat itself. Like Reagan, Trump is a political outsider, faces terrible approval ratings, is the figurehead for one side of a huge political division and has remarkably similar policies.
However, I very much doubt that this attack will lead to Trump securing a landslide win later this year, as many are predicting.
Why?
Because Trump is actually very different to Reagan.
Before the assassination attempt, Reagan had an approval rating of 60%. Trump’s was just 42% last week. He has a lot more ground to cover than Reagan did.
The political scene was also far different in the 80s. The division of Reagan’s time was largely based on economic policies, with Reagan heavily pushing free market solutions and trickle-down economics. This did create a political division, but as the US’s political spectrum shifted towards the right, even some within the Democrats flirted with such economic policies. As such, there was already a bridge spanning the political gap of this era. As such, Reagan’s failed assassination could be the nucleus for politicians from all sides to come together.
Today’s political scene is far more radical and extreme. Reagan’s free-market economics are broadly still in place, with many Democrats embracing it. The divide today is far more ideological. As such, even those who agree with some of the GOP’s policies can’t bring themselves to vote that way. After all, Trump did attempt a coup and is trying to enshrine the notion of total Presidential immunity. These are acts infinitely more extreme than anything Reagan or Nixon partook in, and they threaten to undermine the very democracy the US stands on. As such, this assassination attempt cannot garner the same bipartisan support that Reagan got.
What’s more, Reagan was a very different type of public figure. He wasn’t bashful or braggadocios. Despite his questionable actions, there was a universal air of grace, statecraft and charm about Reagan. His calm and collected reaction to being shot was not jarring or a surprise; rather, it confirmed what many suspected to be his redeeming features. On the other hand, Trump has based his entire brand on being an ego-driven wealthiest top dog without a drop of humility. It shows too, as his initial reaction to the shooting was throwing up a defiant fist. As such, I can’t help but feel rather than painting Trump in a more humble light, this assassination attempt will just highlight the flaws in Trump’s character that many voters are painfully aware of and actually widen the political gap. Particularly if Trump rebrands himself as some form of martyr, something which Reagan didn’t do.
On top of all of this, Reagan actually suffered a potentially life-threatening injury, whereas Trump seemed to only have a damaged ear. One of the main reasons Reagan garnered such bipartisan support was the image of a man recovering from major surgery and the outpouring of condolence that created. Trump won’t have this key media coverage that so greatly helped Reagan.
If you ever wanted proof that Trump is actually strikingly different to Reagan, you just need to look at the relationship the two had. Trump adored Reagan, while Reagan detested Trump. Regan seemed to recognise the brattish self-entitlement that drove Trump, which stood in such stark contrast to his comparatively gentle charm and wit.
So, what will the effect of this failed assassination be? Well, I’m not saying Trump won’t gain from this assassination. Far from it, it has galvanised his supporters, making him a martyr in their eyes. It may even help to humanise someone who openly supported a coup to a certain portion of the voter populace. I am saying this won’t create the bipartisan support that was key to Reagan’s presidency and second term. None of the knock-on effects of this will address many of the worries and concerns many voters and politicians have about Trump. As such, the political divide is still gaping wide, and the 2024 election could still swing either way.
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Sources: The Independent, Reuters, The Age Of Reagan, Vox, AP