Trump Will Want A War Soon

It's happened before.

Trump — WikiCC

Trump’s popularity is plummeting faster than Musk’s Starship, even among some of his Republican “friends”. He needs to get his approval rating up, and fast, before he is “Julius Ceasared”. With the midterms rapidly approaching, and Trump facing impeachment calls, and the risk of removal if that goes ahead, Trump could soon be whispering “Et Tu, Vance.” This is all news to Trump, as he has never really needed approval to take what he wants before; he just “grabs them by the p***y.” After all, he sees a dictator in the mirror. So, what shall he do? Reconsider his position? Capitulate to the protestors? Stop violating the Constitution? We all know he doesn’t have the self-awareness or empathy for that. No, instead, I suspect he will start a war.

Let’s start at the beginning. 52% of Americans agree that he is a “dangerous dictator whose power should be limited before he destroys American democracy.” Only 39% of Americans are happy with Trump’s performance over his first 100 days, a new all-time-low record. But, possibly most damning for the ultra-capitalist US, 76% of Americans believe there will soon be a recession, and it will all be Trump’s fault.

Basically, Trump has an approval rating slightly worse than Epstein’s island Tripadvisor score.

How can Trump remedy this situation? His demonstrably crap policies are what is causing this backlash, but he can’t U-turn on them, otherwise his entire brand and raison d’être goes up in smoke. He is in a catch-22. But, there is one sure-fire way to bolster your political support: a good war.

This is known as the “Rally ‘round the flag effect”, which was first discovered and coined in 1970 by John Mueller. The idea is that, during a period of crisis, either the President becomes a symbol of national identity, or a lack of criticism from the opposition gives them incredible optics, or a combination of both, leading to their popularity booming. Mueller based his findings on events like the Cuban Missile Crisis, but this effect has kept on popping up ever since. H.W. Bush saw a massive upswing in approval during Desert Storm. Meanwhile, his Son’s approval rating went from 51% to a whopping 90% in the aftermath of 911. In fact, there is reason to believe that George Bush Jr. was so vicious towards the Middle East specifically to boost his approval ratings, as even he has admitted the Iraq invasion was unjustified.

However, as both Bushes show, this effect doesn’t last long. Research has shown that after 4.5 years, the voters tend to turn on the President, pushing approval ratings even lower than before. It seems Americans love a war, but they hate spending tax money and sending their kids off to die. So, this is definitely a short-term solution.

But, in Trump’s position, it would give him enough popularity, for just long enough, to solidify himself as a dictator. After all, it enabled G.W. Bush to enact the Patriot Act, which violated the Constitution. With the already fragile nature of the rule of law in America, such a leap in support could easily enable Trump to crown himself judge, jury and executioner.

There is one tricky thing, though. Where?

He could try to claim a war against MS13. After all, 45% of Americans approve of Trump’s deportations. However, it is a little more complex than that. Trump’s deportations go against the Supreme Court’s ruling (thanks to no due process), and 88% of Americans say the Trump administration should have to follow the court’s ruling. Trump’s immigration policy approval rating is also slipping in the wake of these deportations, going from 51% in March to 45%. But, what’s more, there is no credible evidence of any significant action against the American state from MS13, as they tend to focus on interpersonal violence.

Sparking a war against these alleged gang members has no credible justification, and the public appetite for ripping the rule book up to go after these imagined threats just isn’t there. As such, it would only harm his public opinion.

He could throw his weight behind Israel’s planned ethnic cleansing of Gaza. After all, reports are coming out that Netanyahu wants to seize and forcibly deport the Gaza Strip and its occupants, and he will need Trump’s support to do that. What’s more, Palestinians are primarily Muslim, vilified by the US media, and let’s not forget, 911 was a retaliatory terrorist attack for what the US let Israel do to Palestine and other parts of the Middle East by Al-Qaeda. This should be a slam dunk for the rally ‘round the flag effect.

However, at least politically speaking, October 7th happened a long time ago. The time to execute and get that popularity boost has been and gone. Not only that, but polls show most Republican voters want Trump to press Israel to end the war and occupation, and over 60% of voters want Trump to “apply greater pressure on Israel to end its occupation of Palestinian lands and allow Palestinians to create an independent state of their own.” So, not only is Trump too late, but the national sentiment, even in his own voter base, is against him.

He could throw his weight behind Ukraine. But again, this conflict started years ago, and Biden already rode the rally ‘round the flag wave of this conflict. Past that, such a move would be a massive U-turn for Trump, making him look totally incompetent (well, more incompetent). So, again, this is a non-starter.

He could invade Greenland or Canada. But this wouldn’t be a retaliation; the US would be the aggressor, which totally undermines the rally ‘round the flag effect. The President needs to be seen as a staunch defender of the nation, not a war-hungry maniac.

Then, yeah, if China decided to invade Taiwan, maybe Trump could use that. But, 58% of Americans oppose sending US troops to defend Taiwan, and while the likelihood of China eventually invading Taiwan is high, the chances of that happening over the next four years are arguably very slim.

So, unless the US has another major terrorist attack, Trump doesn’t really have an option. So, why am I saying that Trump will start a war?

Trump’s inner circle almost certainly know of the rally ‘round the flag effect. Their seminal political years were around 911, after all. And, with their isolationist “the US is strong” but simultaneously “the US is under mortal threat” rhetoric, they are champing at the bit for a good brawl anyway. Just look at how they struck the Houthis.

Therefore, it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that they will ham-fistedly start a war to try and gain traction with the US voters. That kind of thinking is baked into their history and their political ideology.

But how?

Maybe Trump could paint MS13 onto his knuckle and repeatedly punch himself in the face while it is still wet?

In reality, that is not a question I can answer. I have no crystal ball, and this is just a hunch. But I can guarantee you that if they try to, it will be blatantly obvious and ham-fisted. Pushing protestors to become violent, and then labelling them Hamas-supported terrorists, or openly threatening and antagonising another nation into aggression, that sort of thing. Hell, Trump is close to “911 was an inside job” conspiracy theorists like Laura Loomer, so maybe he feels justified in doing something crazy like a false flag attack. Either way, it will be messy, incompetent and barbaric. But, the way Trump is going, it might soon be his only option to keep or grow his power.

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Sources: Axios, ABC, CNN, JSTOR, FPA, CIS, PEW, The Guardian, AAI, Euronews, USA Today, Global Affairs, CNN, NYCLU, Truthout, BBC