Trump, Israel, Iran & World War III
I was right, and I am sorry.
When you write about the kinds of things I do, being right isn’t always a good thing. I genuinely hope many of the predictions I make don’t come true, as I am all too aware of the horrific pain they will cause. For example, I wanted the numerous MAGA-coded articles that condemned my “Trump Will Want A War Soon” prediction to be right; something the authors failed to grasp, as they seemed to default to character attacks. Sadly, though, they failed to take one thing into account. As Timothy Snyder puts it, we often instigate war for domestic reasons and not international ones. And Trump has every reason to want a war, so he did. But he has put his own decrepit spin on this time-proven political gambit. So strap in — this one is a long one!
To explain how all of this happened and why the ceasefire was not what it seemed, we need to cut through the noise of the past few months and hone in on the timeline that led to the Israel-Iran conflict and its eventual ceasefire. So, let’s wind back the clocks.
1995 — Netanyahu repeatedly claims that “Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb.” A claim that would be proven not to be substantiated, but Netanyahu would repeatedly make these claims for the next 30 years.
2002 — Netanyahu appeared before a US congressional committee, calling for the invasion of Iraq after 9/11, justifying it by claiming that both Iraq and Iran were very close to obtaining nuclear weapons and that they posed a threat to Israel and the US. This was one of the main reasons for the US’s subsequent invasion of Iraq, which found no nuclear weapons in Iraq or Iran.
2003 — Fearing further US military action, Iran formally closed down its nuclear weapons program. In 2003, IAEA nuclear site inspections began, and because Iran was a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, it was subject to these inspections. The IAEA found that Iran had no centrifuges spinning. This meant Iran had no way of enriching uranium and was, in fact, incapable of producing an atomic bomb.
2015 — Obama helped negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, part of which limited Iranian nuclear abilities in return for sanctions being lifted. This effectively ensured Iran couldn’t develop a nuclear weapon, which was something that the international community felt was key to securing peace in the Middle East.
2018 — Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. His own secretary of defence, “Mad Dog” Mattis, advised against this, stating that the deal was working. Why did Trump do this? Because it was part of his effort to destroy Obama’s legacy during his first term. It was also to strengthen ties with Netanyahu, as this deal neutered his Iranian nuclear threat rhetoric, which had put him in power and legitimised his colonial aspirations.
2018 — Soon after, Netanyahu claimed Mossad had found documents stating that Iran had continued its nuclear arms deal in secret (something the deal stopped, and IAEA inspections would have discovered) and alleged that Iran wanted a second Holocaust to “destroy another six million plus Jews”. This is a laughable claim, as Iran has the second largest population of Jews in the Middle East, who live there in peace and can practice their religion freely.
March 25, 2025 — Director of US National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announces that Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program and has never reinstated it since its abandonment in 2003, which is supported by IAEAintelligence.
June 11, 2025 — Trump is days away from potentially signing a new nuclear deal with Iran that would limit their uranium enrichment, making it impossible for them to create a nuclear weapon — something that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had already achieved. This was seen as a significant step in limiting Israeli aggression in the Middle East. However, because this deal potentially opened Iran up to US investment and control, they were tentative to sign it.
June 13, 2025 — Days before Trump could sign, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites in a “preemptive attack”. It is unclear whether Trump was unaware these strikes would occur or if he agreed to them. But either way, it represents Israel undermining US diplomacy to another level. It also proves Israel knows Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon or is even close to creating one, as such an attack would risk a lethal retaliation — particularly because Israel’s attacks didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear sites.
June 13, 2025 — Iran retaliates and fires missiles at Israel. However, this time, they use hypersonic missiles, which can penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome defences. Israel didn’t think Iran had these weapons, meaning that they were caught off guard. As Israel embeds its command and control centres and Iron Dome launch sites — the obvious targets for Iran’s missiles, among residential areas and hospitals — Israel suffers substantial civilian losses. This is especially ironic, as Israel claimed attacking these areas was a war crime, despite doing exactly the same thing in Gaza by claiming Hamas operates from residential areas and hospitals. Explanations why have yet to be substantiated.
June 17, 2025 — While at the G7, Trump was reportedly told that Iran has “sleeper cells” in the US and that they would use them in retaliation for the US joining Israel’s attacks on Iran.
June 21, 2025 — Despite the warnings, Trump bombs Iranian nuclear sites with B2 bombers. Trump claims they have “obliterated” the sites. However, other intelligence sources suggest they hardly damaged the facility. Because this attack was highly publicised by Trump, Iran moved their nuclear stockpile out of these facilities ahead of time. And now, Western intelligence doesn’t know where 400 kg of Iran’s enriched uranium is, and Iran likely still has the vast majority of its nuclear stockpile (which is currently only enriched up to atomic power levels). In other words, the mission did very little for Iran and actively made the nuclear situation significantly worse. Trump also violated the Constitution and international law. This was potentially an act of war, and only Congress had the power to authorise that. By failing to seek their approval, he potentially violated the Constitution, which is grounds for impeachment. International law also dictates that “preemptive” strikes aren’t a legitimate means to start a conflict. Consequently, Israel’s attack and the US’s subsequent support are in violation of the UN charter.
June 22, 2025 — Iran counterstrikes against US bases in the Middle East and threatens to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s missiles were intercepted, but nonetheless, this was a severe retaliation. About 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz — closing it would significantly spike prices and severely impact the US economy. The US asks China to stop the closure, but they would be expected to kowtow to China’s demands, undermining Trump’s MAGA agenda.
June 22, 2025 — MAGA falls apart . Trump ran using an anti-war platform and yet has openly backed Israel into what would explode into World War III, especially when Russia and China back Iran. Major MAGA influencers like Dave Smith and Nick Fuentes openly turn on Trump. To quell the backlash, Vance and Hegseth claim they aren’t at war with Iran but its nuclear program (which is part of the Iranian state, so even this logic still means they are at war with Iran) and that they aren’t looking for regime change. Trump then posted that he is looking for regime change in Iran. Needless to say, MAGA is in pieces.
June 23, 2025 — Iran’s parliament draws plans to stop IAEA inspections. This makes complete sense. Israel is the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East. Israel was the one who attacked Iran. Israel is openly expanding its territory, as it now illegally occupies areas of Palestine, Syria and Jordan, and its stated expansionist goals threaten Iran’s sovereignty. Israel is also actively committing genocide against the Palestinians. Additionally, Israel has used demonstrably false rhetoric about an Iranian nuclear threat to attack Iran. From Iran’s point of view, having a nuke might be the only thing that protects their sovereignty, and leaving the IAEA is the first step in doing that. They only agreed to their terms to prove they had stopped their nuclear program, halt Israeli aggression, and secure their sovereignty. However, this war has shown that without nuclear weapons, Israel can falsify reasons to attack. If they ever had a reason for developing a nuclear weapon, this would be it. In other words, this strike may have forced Iran to finally make a nuclear weapon.
June 23, 2025 — Trump announces a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, stating it will come into effect soon. Israel opens up its airspace, and both sides agree to the proposed ceasefire.
So, Trump’s idiotic actions in 2018 and 2025 are what caused this chain of events to happen, and then suddenly he stops it? This ceasefire came right out of left field. It seemed nonsensical at first. This conflict was set to escalate to World War III. But when you realise the motivations of the key players, it all makes sense.
Iran didn’t want this fight. For them, this is just about protecting their sovereignty. As long as the terms were acceptable, they would agree in a heartbeat. Israel also quickly realised they had made a mistake. They thought they could strike Iran and face no consequences, but they didn’t take into account Iran’s new hypersonic missiles. Tactically, this was a total blunder on the part of the IDF and Mossad. A ceasefire would effectively stem the damage.
As for Trump, this was precisely what he wanted. Things have not been going well for him in the US for a while now. The “No Kings” protest against him was one of the largest in US history. There are an increasing number of reports revealing that the 2024 election may have been rigged in Trump’s favour. DOGE failed to slash costs in the US government. Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill is so disappointing that even die-hard MAGA Republicans have begun to turn on him. A good war is the perfect thing to distract from this.
So, he didn’t prevent Israel’s attack on Iran or bring Netanyahu to heel after the unfounded outlash, as previous presidents have done to Israel. Let’s be honest, this is likely due to incompetence. If Trump wanted to be the “peace president”, he could have prevented everything before it began and bragged about it for years. But Trump was handed a get-out-of-jail-free card. Israel made a mistake and deeply regretted antagonising Iran. Trump’s window to have his cake and eat it opened up.
He could back Israel and instigate this universally distracting war, jamming the headlines full for possibly weeks, burying all the damning news about him coming from across the political spectrum. So, he overrode Congress and projected his military “might” onto the Middle East.
His supporters should love this authoritarian strongman display. However, without a widely understood existential risk to the US, the typical “rally round the flag” effect, in which political support increases for a president entering a war, can’t occur. Furthermore, because Trump ran on an isolationist anti-war platform, this will actually alienate many of his supporters, particularly those who remember the stupidity of the Iraq invasion. But, because Israel obviously wanted to undo this mess, and Iran has been open to a ceasefire since this all started, Trump probably knew before he struck Iran that he could easily broker a ceasefire soon after and become the ”president of peace” again.
Trump was allowed to use a war to hide the misdeeds that could dethrone him. He was able to display his authoritarian power over the Constitution and Congress, but he was also able to portray himself as the only strong man capable of brokering peace. In doing so, he could bolster his MAGA, authoritarian, and isolationist base.
I was right. Trump started a war to save his own skin. But unlike every other time this has happened, he also tried to end it to save his skin. Cake was firmly had and eaten. Right?
Well, no, there is one aspect Trump didn’t take into account. Netanyahu.
If you haven’t watched The Bibi Files yet, I would highly recommend doing so. In it, it explains that Netanyahu has to stay in power. Oherwise, he goes to prison, either for significant corruption charges in Israel or by the ICC for committing genocide. As soon as he steps away, the handcuffs will come flying down. To stay in power after his own political base abandoned him, he created a coalition with extremely far-right colonialist Zionists, and they would only support him if he pushed these expansionist wars. This is one of the reasons why Netanyahu has dramatically escalated in Gaza and has begun expanding Israeli territory eastwards. But it also means that Netanyahu, personally, can’t agree to Trump’s ceasefire. It undermines his political support and could topple his hollow tower and send him to rot in a cell or potentially even be hanged.
So, it was a surprise when it transpired that Israel kept firing missiles after the ceasefire, and, in turn, so did Iran. Rather than dealing with this violation diplomatically, the IDF has announced massive retaliatory strikes on Tehran.
Again, I am not in a position to say what happened here, and we should wait until things are confirmed before making judgements. But it is definitely convenient for Netanyahu that Iran fired missiles after the ceasefire that did no damage at all, making it hard to verify if it ever actually happened, which also gave Netanyahu the ability to loosely “justify” continuing his attack on Iran and keep his precarious political position. Even if Iran’s violation was genuine, it still doesn’t detract from the IDF’s rapid escalation. Even Trump is openly angry, stating that both countries “don’t know what the fuck they are doing”.
And now Trump has cake on his face.
He started all this mess. It would have never happened without him scrapping the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or failing to bring Netanyahu to heel before he “preemptively” struck Iran. He pointlessly escalated it by entering the US into this conflict. And his pathetic attempt at diplomatic peace makes him look like the egotistic, out-of-touch, easily manipulated and weak leader he is.
This is the equivalent of an arsonist nearly burning down your house before attempting to smother the flames and claiming that they are an excellent firefighter and that you should love them for it, only for the flames to relight like a joke birthday candle.
And when I say the house has burnt down, I mean it. The mess Trump has created leaves the door to World War III wide open. Israel has proven it can lash out even further without the US reining things in. Israel has also proven it can manipulate US foreign policy substantially more than before. Iran now has every reason to actually create a nuclear weapon, given that not developing one has not been the route to peace they were promised. And to top it all off, the international laws surrounding legal conflict lie in tatters, due to Trump openly and flagrantly ignoring them. Russia and China have pledged support for Iran and seem to be following through on their promises.
President of peace, my arse.
Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to check out my YouTube channel for more from me, or Subscribe. Oh, and don’t forget to hit the share button below to get the word out!
This is what happens when a criminal is in the White House. Especially this one - everything he touches turns to shit. He needs to be impeached, arrested and put in jail without bond before he can do more harm to the world.
First of all, let me state at the outset that I don’t trust Trump or Netanyahu as far as I can throw a piano. It is absolutely true that the Trump’s (with Bibi’s help) ripping up the JCPOA certainly led us to this point. It’s like the arsonist putting out the fire. That said, it’s going too far to state that Iran’s Jewish community is somehow living wonderful lives in Iran. They are a persecuted, barely tolerated minority that can best be described as third class citizens. I personally know a number of the Iranian Jewish diaspora who were forced by the regime to flee the country and left everything behind in order to save themselves. Another point that I would take issue with is somehow making an issue of the fact that Israel has a nuclear weapon. Despite being attacked many times by its neighbors to the point of near destruction (the 1973 Yom Kippur War, for instance) Israel never “pushed the button”. It may have one but at least, in this area, it has acted responsibly. I don’t believe that the Iranian regime can be trusted to show the same restraint. They’ve spent 50 years chanting “Death to Israel” and if you delve into Khomeini’s pre-revolution writings done while in exile he doesn’t use the terms “Zionist” or “Israel” he’s quite clear about wanting to kill all the Jews; and he says it directly. Iran is a large country and being bombed with a nuclear weapon or two probably wouldn’t destroy it. Israel is very small and a couple of those would wipe it out. It is sort of like the differing views between a pig and chicken on ham and eggs. The pig says to the chicken, “for you it’s a donation, for me it’s a total commitment”. Unfortunately, the only thing that the Ayatollahs have proven to be good at is repressing their people which is such a waste of human ability as they are an educated, talented people that actually would have much in common with Israelis if it weren’t for the lunatics in control. On Israel’s part, this should be an historical moment to meaningfully address the national aspirations of Palestinians. All of the neighbors on their borders are no longer a threat. The Iranian proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas) have been defanged. Iran has always been willing to fight Israel to the last Palestinian. Now they’ve been weakened. Making this sort of historic move would bring the other Arab states into the Abraham Accords and isolate Iran and shore up a regional defense pact. Unfortunately, Bibi, Smotrich and Ben Gvir are every bit as messianic as the Ayatollahs. However, Israel has something that Iran doesn’t have. Free and fair elections and I pray that new leadership takes down the messianic and allows for real progress for peace. Might as well hope.