Trump, Israel, Iran & World War III

I was right, and I am sorry.

Photo by Dylan McLeod on Unsplash

When you write about the kinds of things I do, being right isn’t always a good thing. I genuinely hope many of the predictions I make don’t come true, as I am all too aware of the horrific pain they will cause. For example, I wanted the numerous MAGA-coded articles that condemned my “Trump Will Want A War Soon” prediction to be right; something the authors failed to grasp, as they seemed to default to character attacks. Sadly, though, they failed to take one thing into account. As Timothy Snyder puts it, we often instigate war for domestic reasons and not international ones. And Trump has every reason to want a war, so he did. But he has put his own decrepit spin on this time-proven political gambit. So strap in — this one is a long one!

To explain how all of this happened and why the ceasefire was not what it seemed, we need to cut through the noise of the past few months and hone in on the timeline that led to the Israel-Iran conflict and its eventual ceasefire. So, let’s wind back the clocks.

1. 1995 — Netanyahu repeatedly claims that “Within three to five years, we can assume that Iran will become autonomous in its ability to develop and produce a nuclear bomb.” A claim that would be proven not to be substantiated, but Netanyahu would repeatedly make these claims for the next 30 years.

2. 2002 — Netanyahu appeared before a US congressional committee, calling for the invasion of Iraq after 9/11, justifying it by claiming that both Iraq and Iran were very close to obtaining nuclear weapons and that they posed a threat to Israel and the US. This was one of the main reasons for the US’s subsequent invasion of Iraq, which found no nuclear weapons in Iraq or Iran.

3. 2003 — Fearing further US military action, Iran formally closed down its nuclear weapons program. In 2003, IAEA nuclear site inspections began, and because Iran was a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, it was subject to these inspections. The IAEA found that Iran had no centrifuges spinning. This meant Iran had no way of enriching uranium and was, in fact, incapable of producing an atomic bomb.

4. 2015 — Obama helped negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, part of which limited Iranian nuclear abilities in return for sanctions being lifted. This effectively ensured Iran couldn’t develop a nuclear weapon, which was something that the international community felt was key to securing peace in the Middle East.

5. 2018 — Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. His own secretary of defence, “Mad Dog” Mattis, advised against this, stating that the deal was working. Why did Trump do this? Because it was part of his effort to destroy Obama’s legacy during his first term. It was also to strengthen ties with Netanyahu, as this deal neutered his Iranian nuclear threat rhetoric, which had put him in power and legitimised his colonial aspirations.

6. 2018 — Soon after, Netanyahu claimed Mossad had found documents stating that Iran had continued its nuclear arms deal in secret (something the deal stopped, and IAEA inspections would have discovered) and alleged that Iran wanted a second Holocaust to “destroy another six million plus Jews”. This is a laughable claim, as Iran has the second largest population of Jews in the Middle East, who live there in peace and can practice their religion freely.

7. March 25, 2025 — Director of US National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard announces that Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapons program and has never reinstated it since its abandonment in 2003, which is supported by IAEAintelligence.

8. June 11, 2025 — Trump is days away from potentially signing a new nuclear deal with Iran that would limit their uranium enrichment, making it impossible for them to create a nuclear weapon — something that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action had already achieved. This was seen as a significant step in limiting Israeli aggression in the Middle East. However, because this deal potentially opened Iran up to US investment and control, they were tentative to sign it.

9. June 13, 2025 — Days before Trump could sign, Israel struck Iran’s nuclear sites in a “preemptive attack”. It is unclear whether Trump was unaware these strikes would occur or if he agreed to them. But either way, it represents Israel undermining US diplomacy to another level. It also proves Israel knows Iran doesn’t have a nuclear weapon or is even close to creating one, as such an attack would risk a lethal retaliation — particularly because Israel’s attacks didn’t destroy Iran’s nuclear sites.

10. June 13, 2025 — Iran retaliates and fires missiles at Israel. However, this time, they use hypersonic missiles, which can penetrate Israel’s Iron Dome defences. Israel didn’t think Iran had these weapons, meaning that they were caught off guard. As Israel embeds its command and control centres and Iron Dome launch sites — the obvious targets for Iran’s missiles, among residential areas and hospitals — Israel suffers substantial civilian losses. This is especially ironic, as Israel claimed attacking these areas was a war crime, despite doing exactly the same thing in Gaza by claiming Hamas operates from residential areas and hospitals. Explanations why have yet to be substantiated.

11. June 17, 2025 — While at the G7, Trump was reportedly told that Iran has “sleeper cells” in the US and that they would use them in retaliation for the US joining Israel’s attacks on Iran.

12. June 21, 2025 — Despite the warnings, Trump bombs Iranian nuclear sites with B2 bombers. Trump claims they have “obliterated” the sites. However, other intelligence sources suggest they hardly damaged the facility. Because this attack was highly publicised by Trump, Iran moved their nuclear stockpile out of these facilities ahead of time. And now, Western intelligence doesn’t know where 400 kg of Iran’s enriched uranium is, and Iran likely still has the vast majority of its nuclear stockpile (which is currently only enriched up to atomic power levels). In other words, the mission did very little for Iran and actively made the nuclear situation significantly worse. Trump also violated the Constitution and international law. This was potentially an act of war, and only Congress had the power to authorise that. By failing to seek their approval, he potentially violated the Constitution, which is grounds for impeachment. International law also dictates that “preemptive” strikes aren’t a legitimate means to start a conflict. Consequently, Israel’s attack and the US’s subsequent support are in violation of the UN charter.

13. June 22, 2025 — Iran counterstrikes against US bases in the Middle East and threatens to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s missiles were intercepted, but nonetheless, this was a severe retaliation. About 20% of the world’s oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz — closing it would significantly spike prices and severely impact the US economy. The US asks China to stop the closure, but they would be expected to kowtow to China’s demands, undermining Trump’s MAGA agenda.

14. June 22, 2025 — MAGA falls apart . Trump ran using an anti-war platform and yet has openly backed Israel into what would explode into World War III, especially when Russia and China back Iran. Major MAGA influencers like Dave Smith and Nick Fuentes openly turn on Trump. To quell the backlash, Vance and Hegseth claim they aren’t at war with Iran but its nuclear program (which is part of the Iranian state, so even this logic still means they are at war with Iran) and that they aren’t looking for regime change. Trump then posted that he is looking for regime change in Iran. Needless to say, MAGA is in pieces.

15. June 23, 2025 — Iran’s parliament draws plans to stop IAEA inspections. This makes complete sense. Israel is the only nuclear-armed country in the Middle East. Israel was the one who attacked Iran. Israel is openly expanding its territory, as it now illegally occupies areas of Palestine, Syria and Jordan, and its stated expansionist goals threaten Iran’s sovereignty. Israel is also actively committing genocide against the Palestinians. Additionally, Israel has used demonstrably false rhetoric about an Iranian nuclear threat to attack Iran. From Iran’s point of view, having a nuke might be the only thing that protects their sovereignty, and leaving the IAEA is the first step in doing that. They only agreed to their terms to prove they had stopped their nuclear program, halt Israeli aggression, and secure their sovereignty. However, this war has shown that without nuclear weapons, Israel can falsify reasons to attack. If they ever had a reason for developing a nuclear weapon, this would be it. In other words, this strike may have forced Iran to finally make a nuclear weapon.

16. June 23, 2025 — Trump announces a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, stating it will come into effect soon. Israel opens up its airspace, and both sides agree to the proposed ceasefire.

So, Trump’s idiotic actions in 2018 and 2025 are what caused this chain of events to happen, and then suddenly he stops it? This ceasefire came right out of left field. It seemed nonsensical at first. This conflict was set to escalate to World War III. But when you realise the motivations of the key players, it all makes sense.