This Should Worry Tesla
Musk has no answer to this.
When it comes to EVs, the battery is where it matters. Not only are they by far the most expensive part of the machine, but they determine every aspect of performance, from range, charge speeds, power, and even handling. So, if you can develop a battery that’s cheaper, more energy dense and faster charging than anything else on the market, it’s a one-way ticket to EV domination. That’s why there was so much hype around Tesla’s 4680 battery all those years ago, and why it is so disappointing it hasn’t lived up to Musk’s promises. So when CATL, one of the world’s leading battery manufacturers, recently announced their upcoming Shenxing Plus battery would be the world’s first LFP cells with a driving range of 1,000 km (620 miles) and ultra-fast charging of 600 km (372 miles) of added range in just 10 minutes, my ears pricked up. What is this utopian battery? How have CATL done this? And should this worry Musk?
Let’s start at the beginning here. What is an LFP cell?
LFP is an alternative battery chemistry to the lithium-ion chemistry commonly used in EV batteries. LFP cells typically last far longer than lithium-ion cells, are significantly safer and are better for the environment as the materials are less toxic and far easier to source. Sadly, they are way less energy dense, ranging from 90 to 160 Wh/kg, compared to lithium-ions 200 to 240 Wh/kg. They also charge slower, with LFP EVs typically taking 50% longer to fast charge than lithium-ion EVs. As such, LFP batteries have mostly been confined to cheaper, less capable EVs.
However, CATL has been on a mission to resolve the shortcomings of LFP without increasing the price to create the ultimate EV battery. This is where the Shenxing Plus comes in. This LFP battery has an energy density of 205 Wh/kg, making it one of the most energy-dense LFP cells ever produced. It is also capable of charging at 4C (four times the current it can produce), making it one of the fastest-charging LFP cells ever made. According to CATL, this energy density means EVs can stuff enough of this battery onboard to do 1,000 km (620 miles) on a single charge, and charge from 10% to 70%, adding 600 km (372 miles) of range in just 10 minutes.
These figures are likely using the Chinese CLTC range estimate for EVs, which is particularly optimistic compared to the West’s more realistic WLTP range estimate. If you compare the WLTP and CLTC range of EVs sold in both the West and China, you will find the WLTC is roughly 19% shorter. So the Shenxing Plus battery is more likely to deliver EVs with 810 km (502 miles) of range, and the ability to add 486 km (302 miles) of range in just 10 minutes.
Let’s put all of that into context. The Tesla Model S Dual Motor’s 100 kWh battery gives it a range of 634 km (394 miles) WLPT and the ability to add 442 km (275 miles) in half an hour. In other words, the best range and charge speed offering from Tesla offers 30% less range while having a fast charge rate 3 times slower! That is how mind-bendingly impressive this battery is.
So, how have CATL done this? The cathode in the Shenxing Plus uses granular gradation technology that places each particle in the optimal position within the cathode to achieve ultra-high energy density. This is combined with a proprietary 3D honeycomb-shaped material, further increasing energy density whilst controlling the volume expansion during charge and discharge cycles, enabling ultra-fast charging. Charge speeds are further boosted by a fast lithium-ion conductive coating, which enables smoother and more efficient energy transmission between the cathode and anode. The final cherry on top of the cake is an innovative single-piece casing, which makes the cell packaging incredibly efficient, further boosting its energy density.
All of this innovative technology sounds expensive. Which brings me onto the elephant in the room. Price. CATL has yet to announce the price of the Shenxing Plus. Their previous high-performance LFP battery was the M3P, and it used similar innovations and only cost just over $75 per kWh, significantly cheaper than lithium-ion cells at $130 — $150. This suggests that the Shenxing Plus might be relatively inexpensive. Furthermore, CATL announced in January that they would be cutting the cost of LFP cells by 50% by the middle of 2024, which strongly suggests that the Shenxing will be affordable. Having followed CATL’s developments for a while, my guess is that the Shenxing will cost around $100 per kWh when launched.
This means that the Shenxing will likely be used in mid-range EVs, like the Ioniq 5 or Ford Explorer. These EVs might not be large enough to have a battery pack big enough for that monster 1,000 km range, but they will almost certainly have a significantly better price-to-range ratio, and will charge way faster than anything Tesla currently has. I’m talking a sub $40,000 EV with 350+ miles range and a 10% to 80% charge time in under 15 minutes.
Now, CATL is a supplier of batteries to Tesla, so in theory, Tesla could adopt this battery, even though that would mean they spent billions on developing a battery they didn’t end up using (the 4680). However, CATL also supplies BMW, Mercedes, Hyundai, Kia, Honda, PSA, Toyota, Ford, Volkswagen, Volvo, and Polestar. In other words, any one of these manufacturers could use the Shenxing Plus and leapfrog Tesla. The only way Tesla can keep up is to abandon their multi-billion dollar bid to be a leader in the battery world, which would seriously impact their stock prices, and adopt it as well. Even then, Tesla won’t have any tangible advantage over these competitors. So yeah, Musk should be worried, as this battery could easily make Tesla an also-ran.
Thanks for reading! Content like this doesn’t happen without your support. So, if you want to see more like this, don’t forget to Subscribe and follow me on BlueSky or X and help get the word out by hitting the share button below.
Sources: Reuters, PR Newswire, New Atlas, Swarajya, Will Lockett, Planet Earth & Beyond, EV Database