This AI Could Stop The Next Pandemic From Ever Happening
AI-powered multi-species mutation-proof vaccines.
Vaccines are remarkable. Childhood vaccines are already saving over 4 million lives per year. However, as we discovered with the COVID pandemic, our vaccine technology is far from perfect. Widespread, rapidly mutating viruses can render them less effective or useless. Moreover, our hotter world is a breeding ground for pandemic-level viral outbreaks. The chances of another COVID-19-level pandemic are now about 1 in 50 in any year, and rising. That means you have a roughly 38% chance of experiencing a worldwide pandemic again at some point in your life. But, these chances might tumble thanks to Baseimmune, a UK startup using AI to develop mutation-proof and multi-species vaccines. But how does it work? And can it really stop a pandemic in its tracks?
Before we dive in, we need to understand how our current vaccines work. Most vaccines are based around a single pathogen component, known as an antigen, such as the spike protein of COVID-19. In COVID, this spike acts like a key to open the cell, enabling it to be infected with the virus’ DNA. Scientists then develop a vaccine that can train your immune system, in particular T-cells, to recognise and bind to this antigen, rendering the virus inactive and you immune. This works well until the virus evolves a slightly different version of that component, which can reduce the vaccine’s effectiveness or render it useless.
This is where Baseimmune comes in.
Baseimmune has developed an AI that can take genomic, epidemiological, immunological, clinical, and evolutionary data of a virus and then predict how that virus will mutate and discover hundreds of suitable target antigens within current and future strains simultaneously. Researchers can then artificially produce these antigens in the lab (which aren’t functional viruses, but simple bits of them) and use them to develop an effective mutation-proof vaccine. As this technology enables researchers to create a vaccine based on a virus’s genome, this process can also produce a single multi-strain or multi-species vaccine that is effective against an entire group of related viruses, which all have similar antigen targets and similar possible mutations to those antigens. What’s more, this technology isn’t limited to a single type of vaccine; it can be used to create mRNA, DNA and VLP vaccines, which all have advantages and disadvantages.
Baseimmune’s claims are far from baseless. Using only a small amount of data on COVID-19, they were able to accurately predict significant variations, such as Alpha and Delta. This demonstrates that they can produce mutation-proof vaccines, all thanks to AI.
This insanely impactful AI is already being put to good use. Baseimmune has three ongoing vaccine projects. Two are human vaccines, including a mutation-proof vaccine against malaria and a pancoronavirus vaccine capable of taking out all coronavirus species. The third is a mutation-proof veterinary vaccine against African Swine Fever. Both human vaccines have been discovered and are now in preclinical trials. The African Swine Fever vaccine has passed feasibility and is now in the early stages of development.
To give some sense of how impactful these vaccines could be, The estimated number of global malaria deaths in 2022 was 608,000; meanwhile, the number of annual global coronavirus deaths a year is well into the millions. Effective, broad coverage and future-proof vaccines against these two diseases could save countless lives. As for African Swine Fever, it kills an estimated 43.46 million pigs a year worldwide, equivalent to 6.3% of the total number of pigs. Again, an effective mutation-proof vaccine could be insanely impactful here, significantly increasing the global pork yield, decreasing pork prices, and even reducing pork’s carbon footprint.
But Baseimmune’s real impact is in fighting pandemics. The more people a virus infects, the faster it can evolve, making the challenge of creating an effective vaccine against a pandemic even more complex than it already is. Baseimmune mitigates this challenge, and as it can be used with a plethora of different vaccine technologies, it can dramatically speed up the discovery of safe, long-lasting vaccines. However, Baseimmune could, in theory, go further than this. As our understanding of pandemics improves, we can actively predict what group of viruses will likely cause the next pandemic. Baseimmune has the ability to proactively develop a multi-species mutation-proof vaccine for these possible pandemic-starting groups that can be deployed if they mutate and start a pandemic. So, it is far from hyperbole to say that this AI could stop the next pandemic in its tracks. It just depends on how we use this brilliant technology.
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Sources: Baseimmune, Baseimmune, CEPI, Founders Forum, IVVVN, Nature, WHO, Nature, CDC, CDC