These Global Record Temperatures Are More Worrying Than You Think
We are passing a terrifying threshold.
We are in “truly uncharted territory”. That isn’t my words, but that of Copernicus Climate Change Service director Carlo Buontempo. He’s not wrong, either. Global temperatures between July 2023 and June 2024 were the highest on record, with global average temperatures during that period 1.64 degrees Celsius hotter than in pre-industrial times. Last Sunday and Monday consecutively broke the hottest average global daily temperature record. We have never experienced a world this hot. But more than that, we are starting to pass climate thresholds of no return, and no one seems to be talking about it.
Let’s nip something in the bud right away. Rising global temperatures is caused by human emissions. There is a practical 100% scientific consensus linking the two. What’s more, while global temperature records like this are not indicative of a warming climate by themselves, as they can be anomalous events, these climate records are part of a multi-decade upward trend.
For example, look at the graph below. While 2024 has plainly been the warmest year recorded, it is obviously not an anomaly. This context heavily suggests these record temperatures aren’t due to some freak event but a predictable and rapid trend in our climate.
So, to say human-caused climate change caused these record temperatures is an accurate thing to say.
What’s more, all the science suggests it will only get worse. Carbon Brief’s analysis indicates a 95% probability that this year will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record. The World Meteorological Organisation predicts that by 2028, the global climate will be 1.9 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial times.
So, why is that a problem? Well, it means we have gone past the threshold of many climate tipping points. ESA define climate tipping points as “elements of the Earth system in which small changes can kick off reinforcing loops that ‘tip’ a system from one stable state into a profoundly different state.” The most well-known is the Boreal Permafrost Collapse. The permafrost of the Arctic Boreal forest contains 2.5 times the atmosphere’s carbon, with much of it trapped in gas pockets in the ice. If this starts melting, it can create a rapid and devastating positive feedback loop of climate change as the released carbon increases global temperatures, leading to more permafrost melting and more carbon released. Estimates of how much such an event will warm the planet vary, but nonetheless, they all predict it will have sizable and deleterious effects on the entire planet.
But, we have already passed the predicted minimum thresholds of many of the most potentially dangerous climate tipping points. For example, the Boreal permafrost collapse, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet are all predicted to happen once global warming crosses 1.5 degrees Celsius. Well, we crossed that threshold this year and are on course to massively surpass it in just a few years. And these tipping points aren’t trivial. The collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet will increase global sea levels by 7.2 meters, flooding entire countries. It will take time for the sheet to completely collapse, but nonetheless, we will greatly feel its impact within our lifetimes if it starts this process.
Yet, no one is talking about this. Instead, we are gorping at thermometers. The climate is literally reaching a point of no return, yet that fact has barely hit the headlines.
Thanks for reading! Content like this doesn’t happen without your support. So, if you want to see more like this, don’t forget to Subscribe and help get the word out by hitting the share button below.
Sources: The Guardian, Carbon Brief, Planet Earth & Beyond, Climate Tipping Points, Web Archive, WMO, BBC, ESA, NSIDC, Science.org