The US Is Closer To Revolution Than You Think
The tide is beginning to turn.
Over the past decade, while the Western political world has turned cannibalistic, devouring its own voters in the name of fabled growth, I have often contemplated Gandhi. This frail man drove out an empire, and not just any empire — the British Empire, a globe-dominating tyrannical force that put Genghis Khan and the Romans to shame. Yet, he used neither swords nor firearms and never even so much as drew a drop of blood. He stared down a veritable titan that saw the entirety of humanity as nothing but a disposable cog in its self-enriching machinations and, without even a hint of violence, ousted it from his land, freeing himself and his nation from its shackles. His story shows us that no matter how formidable, exploitative, tyrannical, or despotic the powers that be get, the human spirit will always prevail. It seems his legacy has not been forgotten either, as America is gearing up to break free of its own fetters.
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On the 5th of April, 2025, over three million Americans peacefully took to the streets in protest against the pillaging of their rights, the desecration of their democracy, the debasement of essential government services, and the destruction of the American economy at the hands of Trump and Musk. This was no limp shout into the void; this was a display of solidarity and rage that shook the very foundations of the Orange Man’s power. Trump has claimed he has a mandate to concentrate power, disregard the Constitution, and rule as he sees fit. And, while no capitols were stormed, no weapons were used, and no threats were dished out, this protest was more potent than an insurrection.
Why? Because violence is a tool of the tyrannical; they are the ultimate bullies, and when we meet them on their terms, the people never win. But peaceful solidarity, that is the tool of the masses. We are forcing them to meet on our terms of reasonableness and reality, where all their tricks and manipulations are impotent. The very foundation of their power, their lies, falsehoods, and illusions, evaporates. And, without their power, revolution is unavoidable.
This is not the whimsical delusion of a utopianist either; there is hard evidence to support this fact. After years of analysing political change and revolutions, Erica Chenoweth found that civil disobedience was the most effective way to induce widespread political change and that nonviolent movements are twice as likely to meet their goals. On top of that, she discovered a tipping point. Major political change is inevitable once 3.5% of the population starts actively engaging in peaceful protests.
Even the most conservative of estimates place the percentage of Americans who actively engaged in these “Hands Off!” protests at 1%. If you include American expats who demonstrated in Europe and analyse more optimistic attendee figures, that percentage figure could go as high as 1.3%.
In short, America is about a third of the way to an inevitable upturning of the plutocratic status quo — far closer than many might think.
However, let’s not forget that this was only the first round of protests, and plenty of people stayed at home. Take the BLM protests; only about 14.9% of those who deeply supported the movement protested in 2020. With the economy in freefall thanks to Trump’s idiotic on-and-off-again tariffs and the impact of ill-informed and rushed government cuts only just beginning to show, far more people who were sympathetic to the movement but chose to stay at home this time will be forced to get out and protest in the coming months, as they will have no other option. So, reaching that 3.5% mark is set to happen rapidly.
All this just 75 days into Trump’s 1,461-day term. He still has 95% of his legal time in power left. Do you think he can avoid pushing the American people past the 3.5% tipping point for that long? I doubt it. And when the inevitable happens, and Trump is dethroned, it won’t just be Americans relieved to cast off Trump’s chains. From London to Beijing, from Gaza to Kyiv, the world will be a safer, more prosperous place once this menace disappears from power. So, keep going, America. You are doing a remarkable job. Just remember Gandhi, and stay peaceful; only then can we truly banish tyranny from the land.
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Can't wait for the revolution and Constitution 2.0
Thanks, Will, for an encouraging take on our present situation in the US. You're right about the power of generally peaceful mass movements against oppression, from Gandhi against the British, the original overthrow of the Shah of Persia, to the color revolutions.
But some caveats...
-- The oppressors are also learning, and have developed tools such as massive disinformation and provocations as an excuse for violence and draconian measures.
-- Too often, these movements have failed -- sometimes deliberately -- to create a coherent program, message, or leadership.
There's a wonderful recent book by British journalist Vincent Bevins, If We Burn (https://www.amazon.com/If-We-Burn-Protest-Revolution/dp/1541788974). Bevins witnessed movements such as those in the Arab Spring, and how they failed and left the oppressors stronger and the people even more demoralized. We need to get it right, now that democracy and rule of law are under assault here in America!