The Nuclear War In Africa
Russia's nuclear racket is growing.
Nuclear war isn’t always missiles and bombs. It’s far more political. The Cold War was a nuclear war, though not a single nuclear weapon was fired in aggression. Instead, nuclear technology was used to influence countries across the world and threaten rival countries. Warfare, in general, has also changed dramatically in recent years. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked off a proxy war between the West and Russia, with the West sending supplies and funding to Ukraine and Russia weaponising their huge influence in the global energy sector to spark an energy crisis in the West, draining our economies. But that wasn’t enough for Russia. They have another nuclear giant in their cross-hairs. Via a coup in Africa, Russia is wielding its nuclear energy industry to target one of Ukraine’s and the EU’s most aggressive protectors. France.
This all started in late July last year in the African country Niger. Up to this point, Niger had close and “relatively” friendly relations with France since their independence from the colonial power in 1960. But last July, a coup led by Niger’s military general Abdourahamane Tchiani overthrew the country’s pro-French president and installed Tchiani as the new president, who subsequently ordered the French military to leave. While Russia didn’t officially support the coup, there is some evidence they had a hand in starting and aiding it. Understandably, France threatened to use force to reinstate the deposed president. Not only did Russia advise against this, arguing that it would destabilise the region, but Russia’s mercenary army, Wagner, sent support to the new military government upon their request.
In effect, Russia has supported a military coup in Niger; whether that support started before or after the deposition of the president is up for debate, which took the country from a pro-western position to a pro-Russian position.
Other than being a worrying case of Russia helping to erode democracy and Western support, this also represented a severe incursion into the West’s nuclear power capacity.
To understand this, we need to understand uranium and nuclear fuel. Uranium is by far the most common nuclear material used for bombs and power plants. It is a relatively common element found in several large geological deposits worldwide. However, the isotope uranium 235 (U235) is the only form of uranium that can readily undergo fission, the nuclear chain reaction all nuclear technology is based on, and it only makes up 0.7% of natural uranium. That ratio is too low for fission to occur, so raw uranium needs to be “enriched” by removing other isotopes until the percentage of U235 is high enough.
Mining uranium and uranium enrichment tend to happen in very different locations. Kazakhstan is by far the largest uranium mining country in the world, with Niger coming in 7th. Russia leads the world in Uranium enrichment, exporting $2 billion worth of reactor-ready nuclear fuel (enriched uranium) each year! Coming in a close third is France, which exports $1.2 billion worth of nuclear-ready fuel. But, as France gets 70% of its energy from nuclear power, and it gets almost all of its nuclear fuel from its nationalised uranium enrichment and mining company Orano, France likely has the second-largest uranium enrichment capacity.
But, Orano used to get 15% of its raw uranium from Niger.
Luckily, the supply chain of uranium has continued since the coup. However, Orano had plans to expand their operations in Niger, which is understandable as Niger’s uranium deposits are the largest in the world. However, the new military government has disagreed with the terms of this extension, and if Orano can’t reach an agreement with this new government by June 19th (the day after I am writing this), they will lose the right to mine uranium in Niger altogether.
There are also reports that Russia is seeking to take over the mining in Niger if/when Orano’s rights to mine are revoked.
In all likelihood, Orano will lose its licence, and Russia will gain access to the world’s largest uranium deposit.
Why does this matter? Well, Russia still supplies both the US and the EU with 20% of their nuclear fuel. Why? Because expanding uranium enrichment services is damn expensive and takes a long time. So when the USSR fell, the West quickly started importing cheaper enriched uranium from Russia and didn’t develop or expand their own enrichment services. This weakness was highlighted in the aftermath of Russia’s Ukraine invasion, and Orano stepped up to the plate and announced it would expand its enrichment services by %30 to start weaning us of Russian nuclear fuel.
Russia can’t stop Orono’s expansion, but it could significantly reduce its uranium supply and, in turn, keep its control of the global nuclear sector. If they can keep this control, they can weaponise the world’s reliance on their nuclear fuel. Is that why Russia did what it did in Niger? I doubt it is the only reason. Nonetheless, this context makes Russia’s actions all the more worrying.
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Sources: Bloomberg, Mining.com, Sputnik Africa, Statista, Orano, The Conversation, Statista, Planet Earth & Beyond, Politico