Starlink Is Doomed

Every bit of Musk's empire is crumbling.

Photo by Forest Katsch on Unsplash

As I cup a piping hot mug of tea for warmth during a bitterly cold winter clear night, I patiently watch my brand-new amateur telescope track and image the Orion nebula as foxes scurry through the nearby hedgerows. The existential bliss of this moment is quickly ruined when I excitedly look at the first set of images. Far from the jaw-dropping galactic vista I was expecting, all I saw were dozens of light streaks. This was my first interaction with Starlink way back in 2022, and ever since, I have had a deep-seated hatred for it. But I, and many others who despise Starlink, are now being vindicated, as we now know Starlink is doomed to fail, and it may even take SpaceX down with it. Let me explain.

Here is a question: why does Starlink exist?

Simply put, it justifies the existence of Starship.

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Musk wants Starship to only cost $10 million per launch and to have enough annual launch capacity to run his own Mars missions. Both of these can only happen if there is a gargantuan demand for launches, which there isn’t. After all, there are only around 150 launch customers worldwide, and many require less than one launch yearly. So, Musk launched Starlink, a global Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite internet service that requires dozens, and soon to be, hundreds of launches per year to maintain. In theory, this would generate huge profits for SpaceX and increase the launch demand enough to enable and legitimise Starship.

And this plan seemed to be going very well.

In 2023, Starlink “broke even”, meaning that the venture was viable even though it was being built with the more expensive and smaller Falcon 9 rocket. Since then, Starlink’s customer base has bloomed, and revenues have nearly doubled to $7.7 billion. In fact, Starlink was projected to double this figure again this year as multiple billion-dollar contracts were set to be signed.

But, notice I said was.