Russia's Nuclear Threat Is Rising
Russia's Nuclear Threat Is Rising
Is this a bluff?
Ever since Putin sent his forces into Ukraine, there has been a looming nuclear threat over the world. Could this newly unhinged Putin press the nuclear button in a desperate move to win? If he did, how would we in the West respond? Luckily, so far, these issues have been only hypothetical. But recent actions by the Kremlin, from tactical nuclear weapons drills to the possible launch of a space nuclear weapon, have solidified this threat. So, has the clock ticked closer to midnight? Or is Putin bluffing?
Let’s start with the more verifiable issue. The Guardian recently reported on Russian forces conducting tactical nuclear weapon drills near Russia’s Ukraine border. Tactical nuclear weapons are small fission weapons designed to be used on a battlefront in military situations. These can take out military strongholds or strategic positions of enemy forces. While they are less destructive than their city-flattening “strategic nuclear weapon” cousins, they are still equally devastating, able to decimate enemy forces in one fell swoop. As such, the politics around tactical nuclear weapons are equally tense as any other nuclear weapon, and as such, no force has ever used one in anger.
Tactical nuclear weapons could easily crush the guerilla-type warfare currently used by the Ukraine forces, and Zelenskyy and the West know this. Putin ordered these drills as a warning to the West not to escalate the tensions or support Ukraine further.
However, this might not be Russia’s most significant nuclear threat. You see, they recently launched a mysterious satellite that could unleash destruction from above.
The US Pentagon recently announced that Russia launched a satellite last week that they believe is capable of attacking other satellites, also known as a counter-space weapon. But, not long ago, US politicians stated that they have two verifiable sources that claim Russia intends to put nuclear weapons in space as counter-space weapons to combat modern satellite constellations like Starlink. However, such nuclear anti-satellite weaponry can have devastating consequences on the ground.
You see, nuclear anti-satellite weaponry uses Electro-Magnetic Pulses (EMPs) to destroy multiple satellites in one go. Nuclear weapons are so energetic that they throw out a tonne of electromagnetic radiation. Underground or in the lower atmosphere, this radiation doesn’t really do much, as the destruction it causes is massively outshone by the explosion, and the radiation is stopped by the atmosphere and the ground. But in the upper atmosphere or in space, this radiation is unleashed as it isn’t shackled back by resistance. As such, it interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field, imparting all of its energy into the field and sending high-intensity waves (or pulses) through it for thousands of kilometres, creating an EMP. EMPs induce high currents in anything conductive they come across. As such, any satellite within a few thousand kilometres of an EMP, which could be hundreds, if not thousands, will be fried as their delicate internal computers are destroyed through overvoltage. But EMPs also travel down to the Earth’s surface, utterly destroying any electronic devices for thousands of miles.
It makes sense for Russia to use EMP weaponry. Ukraine is being greatly helped by Musk’s Starlink network, which uses thousands of small satellites to beam down the internet to terminals on the ground. By using this, Ukraine can mitigate any attempt of Russia to scupper their communications. For Russia to properly disable this service, they need a way to destroy a vast number of these satellites in one go. An EMP is the only viable way to do this. What’s more, Ukraine is using common domestic electronic devices such as drones to devastating effect against the Russian forces. An EMP could render their fleets of these devices useless and even knock out their devastatingly capable anti-missile systems given to them by the US, leaving Ukraine’s forces incredibly vulnerable to attack.
With this in mind, it seems likely this mystery counter-space weapon is nuclear in nature.
But it might not be, thanks to the Outer Space Treaty. The Outer Space Treaty was signed in 1967 by many countries, including the US and the Soviets (their signatory has carried over into modern-day Russia) when the space race was getting out of control. The part we are interested in today is its restriction on the use of nuclear weapons. You see, high-altitude EMPs were a significant worry of both the US and the Soviets, as such an attack could render their energy grids and burgeoning technology industries useless. So, this treaty banned nuclear weapons at high altitudes or in space. Russia is still a part of the Outer Space Treaty, so if this counter-space weapon is nuclear in nature, they have violated the treaty and risk immense consequences from the 114 nations that signed the Outer Space Treaty, such as even harsher sanctions.
The US hasn’t commented on whether this counter-space weapon is nuclear. But the fact that Russia is gearing up to use atomic weapons on two fronts of this conflict is incredibly worrying. While neither of these nuclear options is city-flattening, using nuclear weapons of any kind in Ukraine risks the West retaliating will equal (but not necessarily nuclear) firepower through Ukraine or even directly. Such an event could quickly become a nucleus that unites the West against Russia, delivering the final push to put them back in their place. Upping nuclear tensions like this might be Putin’s way of threatening the West, but it is almost guaranteed to backfire on Putin spectacularly. I guess the question is, is Putin really desperate enough to push that nuclear button?
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Sources: The Guardian, BBC, Will Lockett, TUoL