OpenAI's Ads Are Worse Than You Thought
Who believed this was a good idea?
Back in February, OpenAI began stuffing ChatGPT with hyper-targeted adverts that exploited its users’ deeply personal connection to the slop bot, which was a decision Altman originally considered a last resort. Now, according to Axios, OpenAI has already reached $100 billion in annual recurring revenue from these adverts, and they expect to reach $2.6 billion in ad revenue by the end of the year, as well as $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030! So, the big question is, has this last resort paid off? Has transforming ChatGPT into an ad-based data farming slop machine secured OpenAI’s future? Hell no! I don’t think people realise just how big of a hole Altman has dug for himself. This doesn’t even touch the sides!
Earlier this year, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that OpenAI received $20 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from paying users in December 2025, which means she claims OpenAI made $1.66 billion in December 2025. There has recently been a mass exodus of users from ChatGPT (with more on that in a bit), so let’s assume that their ARR is approximately the same. That would mean the rollout of ads has increased OpenAI’s revenue by only 0.5%. It has barely moved the needle!
Now, yes, OpenAI does say it plans to make $2.6 billion in annual revenue from ads by the end of the year. But OpenAI’s projections are almost always exaggerated. I previously estimated that if OpenAI’s revenue continues to grow at its current rate, it will generate approximately $30.8 billion in 2026. So, even in a best-case scenario, these ads might only boost revenue by 8.4%. Note that this is revenue, not profit. In that previous article, I calculated that OpenAI will likely post a loss of at least $22.2 billion for 2026. So again, even in a best-case scenario, these ads will only reduce OpenAI’s losses by just over 10%.
This isn’t ideal in the present moment, but the long-term perspective is even worse.
Let’s be generous and accept OpenAI’s predicted future ad revenue. How much would that projected $100 billion help their overall revenue?
Well, previously, OpenAI predicted it would make $125 billion in revenue in 2029. If we use this new prediction of $100 billion in annual ad revenue by 2030, we can assume that OpenAI is now expecting to make $225 billion in revenue in 2029.
That sounds impressive — but it isn’t enough.
OpenAI’s own predictions reveal the company is on course to post annual losses of $115 billion in 2029, using that $125 billion projected revenue. So even with this projected ad revenue boosting those earnings, the company would still post annual losses of $15 billion! I know there are a lot of zeros here, but that level of loss is not conducive to a sustainable business at all.
Not to mention that is a highly optimistic best-case scenario.
OpenAI has reportedly reduced its spending targets, with investors recently told it aims to spend around $600 billion on total compute by 2030. For some perspective, Ed Zitron found that OpenAI spent around $13 billion on compute with Microsoft in 2025. OpenAI’s internal documents expect a $14 billion loss in 2026 from a $20 billion revenue, suggesting a $34 billion compute spend this year. Let’s then assume a fairly linear increase in compute spending of $100 billion in 2027, $150 billion in 2028, and $303 billion in 2029, for a total of $600 billion in compute spend between now and 2030, just as OpenAI is telling investors.
That would mean that in 2029, OpenAI would have $125 billion in revenue from paying users and $100 billion in revenue from adverts, generating an annual compute spend of $303 billion. That would make for an annual loss of $78 billion!
Even this scenario is based on OpenAI’s ludicrously optimistic revenue figures.
Quite simply, this ad revenue is nowhere near enough to even substantially delay OpenAI’s inevitable collapse.
So, was it worth it?
Well, OpenAI has already lost a major researcher. In a New York Times article, Zoë Hitzig detailed why she is leaving Altman’s company, stating, “I have deep reservations about OpenAI’s [advert] strategy.” She went on to explain that OpenAI plans to exploit its user base with hyper-targeted adverts, leveraging the highly sensitive data its chatbots have gathered on them, which leaves users vulnerable to a new level of manipulation.
OpenAI’s userbase has echoed Hitzig’s sentiment. It has been reported that 1.5 million users left OpenAI over their decision to take the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. This mass exodus was almost certainly spurred on by the rollout of adverts to paying ChatGPT users, and thanks to the similar timing of these two events (which, yes, makes Altman and OpenAI look insanely desperate), we will never know how much of this exodus to assign to either cause.
In short, these adverts are likely more of a hindrance to OpenAI than you probably realise, making the question “Was it worth it?” hard to answer.
In a previous article, I said, “OpenAI deploying ads is the equivalent of the captain of the Hindenburg waving a dummy fire extinguisher out of the cockpit window while flames begin to lick up the side of the hydrogen-filled balloon. It isn’t a solution at all, but it kind of looks like one, and it might keep the delusion that everything is okay going for just a little longer.” And it seems I was right! This mess only proves how desperate Altman is to keep the charade up for just a bit longer.
Thanks for reading! Everything expressed in this article is my opinion, and should not be taken as financial advice or accusations. Don’t forget to check out my YouTubechannel for more from me, or Subscribe. Oh, and don’t forget to hit the share button below to get the word out!