OpenAI's Ads Are Worse Than You Thought
Who believed this was a good idea?
Back in February, OpenAI began stuffing ChatGPT with hyper-targeted adverts that exploited its users’ deeply personal connection to the slop bot, which was a decision Altman originally considered a last resort. Now, according to Axios, OpenAI has already reached $100 billion in annual recurring revenue from these adverts, and they expect to reach $2.6 billion in ad revenue by the end of the year, as well as $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030! So, the big question is, has this last resort paid off? Has transforming ChatGPT into an ad-based data farming slop machine secured OpenAI’s future? Hell no! I don’t think people realise just how big of a hole Altman has dug for himself. This doesn’t even touch the sides!
Earlier this year, OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar stated that OpenAI received $20 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) from paying users in December 2025, which means she claims OpenAI made $1.66 billion in December 2025. There has recently been a mass exodus of users from ChatGPT (with more on that in a bit), so let’s assume that their ARR is approximately the same. That would mean the rollout of ads has increased OpenAI’s revenue by only 0.5%. It has barely moved the needle!
Now, yes, OpenAI does say it plans to make $2.6 billion in annual revenue from ads by the end of the year. But OpenAI’s projections are almost always exaggerated. I previously estimated that if OpenAI’s revenue continues to grow at its current rate, it will generate approximately $30.8 billion in 2026. So, even in a best-case scenario, these ads might only boost revenue by 8.4%. Note that this is revenue, not profit. In that previous article, I calculated that OpenAI will likely post a loss of at least $22.2 billion for 2026. So again, even in a best-case scenario, these ads will only reduce OpenAI’s losses by just over 10%.
This isn’t ideal in the present moment, but the long-term perspective is even worse.
Let’s be generous and accept OpenAI’s predicted future ad revenue. How much would that projected $100 billion help their overall revenue?
Well, previously, OpenAI predicted it would make $125 billion in revenue in 2029. If we use this new prediction of $100 billion in annual ad revenue by 2030, we can assume that OpenAI is now expecting to make $225 billion in revenue in 2029.
That sounds impressive — but it isn’t enough.
