
There is no such thing as a free lunch, and that has never been more true than with AI. Sure, AI models can be incredibly powerful, but they take so much energy to build, maintain and operate that they are barely profitable and have a vast carbon footprint that is only set to grow exponentially. This fact was laid out letter by letter in Google’s recent annual environmental report, which found their 2023 CO2 emissions were 48% higher than in 2019, despite the company’s goal of being net-zero by 2030! Why? Well, over the past five years, Google has dramatically expanded its use of energy-intensive data centres. As Data centres are a crucial part of AI infrastructure, and Google has desperately tried to solidify itself as a forerunner in the AI industry, many people pointed the finger at AI for Google’s worryingly increasing emissions. However, one of Google’s chief scientists, Jeff Dean, claims this simply isn’t the case and that they are on track to reach net-zero in only six years. Sadly, all the evidence points to Google and this chief scientist being clouded by denial.
So, what evidence does Dean have to back up his position?
Well, in a recent interview, he stated, “There’s been a lot of focus on the increasing energy usage of AI, and from a very small base that usage is definitely increasing.” He elaborated “I think people often conflate that with overall datacenter usage — of which AI is a very small portion right now but growing fast — and then attribute the growth rate of AI-based computing to the overall datacenter usage.”
Now, it’s no wonder Dean would defend AI like this; he is currently the lead of Google’s AI division, after all. But the fact he doesn’t back up this position with any solid figures is, at the very least, suspicious. After all, if anyone would know off-hand data to back up such a position, it is Dean.
Firstly, there is a significant amount of data that suggests Dean is wrong here. For example, it has been found that up to 20% of US data centre energy use was driven by AI last year. Whereas, back in 2019, AI used practically none. Considering Google is developing AI faster than most other AI companies, this fact alone points to a significant amount of their increased emissions coming from AI.
But, even if he is right that AI is only responsible for a small part of Google’s data centre growth, that still doesn’t mean AI isn’t going to wreck their net-zero targets.
The IEA has predicted that by 2026, the AI industry will grow exponentially to drink at least ten times its demand in 2023! As such, they predict that global data centre annual consumption will reach 1,000 TWh in 2026, compared to 2023’s 460 TWh. Needless to say, such an increase will incur a vast carbon footprint.
Goldman Sachs, an investment bank heavily invested in AI companies, takes an understandably less realistic and more optimistic outlook but nonetheless forecasts data centres to use 160% more energy by 2030 thanks to AI.
So, while we can’t outwardly say Dean is wrong about AI not being responsible for Google’s ballooning emissions, we can happily state he and Google are in vast denial about their 2030 net-zero target. I mean, even if Dean is correct, and these increased carbon emissions didn’t come from AI, what will Google’s energy usage and carbon emissions look like in a few years when their AI products have developed and dramatically expanded?
I mean, Google’s energy use is already expanding so fast that they physically can’t adopt clean energy fast enough or pay for enough verifiable carbon offsetting to reach their emissions targets.
However, Google and every other AI company can’t publicly admit that their AI drive is incompatible with planetary conservation. Google’s stock value is now intrinsically tied to its AI future and its ability to lead the climate movement. It can’t be seen to fail on either point, but it is physically impossible for them to develop the AI models they want and to reach net-zero. So, Google and Dean will have to choose which direction to take the company sooner or later, but for now, it seems their heads are stuck in the sand about this looming fork in the road.
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Sources: The Register, Fortune, Sky, Independent, GS, DCF, Time, Will Lockett