Blue Origin Might Make Starship Obsolete

No, really, they might!

New Glenn — Blue Origin

After the roaring success of Blue Origin’s second New Glenn flight, which not only reached orbit and recovered its booster but also launched two probes to Mars (take note, SpaceX, this is how you design a rocket!), they are taking things up a notch with the New Glenn 9x4. This is a recently announced “super heavy” variant of the New Glenn, and its silly name comes from its engine configuration, as its booster has nine rocket engines, and its upper stage has four. This is a sizeable upgrade over the standard New Glenn, whose booster has seven engines, and its upper stage has two. However, this upgrade is a much bigger deal than you might think, as it is set to make SpaceX’s infamous Starship completely obsolete. Let me explain.

New Glenn

I have already covered the standard New Glenn rocket (read more here), and it is damn impressive. Like a Falcon 9, it is partially reusable, with the booster landing back on Earth. It can take 45 tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO), 13 tons to Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO), which is five tons more than SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy, and seven tons to Tran Lunar Injection (TLI, equivalent to payload to the lunar surface). While launch costs for New Glenn are not publicly known, they have been estimated at between $55 million and $68 million, which is about $30 million cheaper than a Falcon Heavy launch (with all three boosters recovered).

But New Glenn can dramatically increase its payload to the Moon using a tug vessel Lockheed Martin is developing. The idea is that one New Glenn launches the payload, while the other launches the tug vessel; they then dock in orbit and use the tug vessel’s power to head towards the Moon. Such docking and tug technology already exists and is well proven. Using this setup, Blue Origin plans to land its 16-ton Blue Moon MK2 on the lunar surface by 2029.

If we assume the tug vessel costs around $20 million (which is a similar cost to other proposed tug missions), that means the standard New Glenn costs around $130 million (given that it requires two launches and a tug vessel) to get 16 tons to the lunar surface, or $8,125 per kg to the lunar surface. That is pretty damn cheap!

The 9x4 is almost exactly the same thing, just on steroids. It can take a massive 70 tons to LEO, the same as a Falcon Heavy, and 14 tons to GTO, which is 75% more than a Falcon Heavy. Using this tug vessel setup, it can carry a whopping 20 tons to the lunar surface! As for launch costs, we don’t exactly know yet, but considering the estimated costs of the standard New Glenn, it will likely be around $100 million.

That means a 9x4 can take 20 tons to the lunar surface for around $220 million (given that it would be $100 million per flight, plus $20 million for the tug vessel), for a cost of $11,000 per kg to the lunar surface. That is more than the standard variant, but the added payload can enable much more complex missions.

Compared to Starship

Okay, so how much does Starship cost per kg to the lunar surface?

A lot more than you might think.