Biden Might Have Just Saved Ukraine
Suck it, Putin.
For almost a year now, Ukraine has been practically begging the US to allow them to use their US-supplied long-range missiles to hit Russian military targets on Russian soil. Kyiv has compared this limitation to fighting with one arm tied behind its back, as it enables Russia to build its military infrastructure on Ukraine’s border, bolstering its canon-fodder approach to warfare and swarming Ukraine’s more potent but smaller force. So, why has the US placed these limitations on Ukraine? Well, Russia recently changed its nuclear doctrine, meaning that if any NATO-supplied missiles were used against them on their territory, they would see it as provocation by NATO and justify a nuclear response against NATO. In short, this limitation was to prevent the Ukraine invasion from spiralling into a global thermonuclear war. So, when Biden lifted this restriction in the wake of Trump securing the presidency, it shocked the international political scene. But does this mean Biden has damned us to nuclear war? Well, I don’t think so. In fact, I think he has just saved Ukraine, and possibly the world, from Russia’s aggression.
Let’s start with why Ukraine needs to be able to use these missiles against Russian military targets in Russia.
Russia’s military is not as well-equipped, trained, or organised as Ukraine’s smaller, more powerful forces, except in a few specific areas like fighter jets, which are becoming less relevant as the war continues. The only way Russia has been able to push deeper into Ukraine and hold more Ukrainian territory is by pumping a colossal number of troops in to overwhelm the smaller Ukrainian forces. In fact, Russia is now deploying North Korean troops to make up for the lack of domestic supply as their reserves begin to dwindle. This “overwhelm” approach can only work if there is substantial military infrastructure to allow these forces to consistently flow into combat areas, and Russia has been able to set these up with impunity as all NATO members supplying Ukraine with weapons have forbidden them from using them against targets on Russian soil.
Ukraine has done the best it can with these restrictions, has fended off numerous Russian pushes, and has even been able to capture Russian territory in retaliation without missile cover. But they can only make more progress by taking out the infrastructure enabling Russia’s flow of troops and risk losing their retaliatory claimed territory without sufficient aerial cover.
This is why Ukraine needs these restrictions lifted and why it is massive news that Biden has done so. It signifies a serious shift in the conflict, both in terms of Ukraine’s ability to move forward and the US’s involvement.
But won’t this risk nuclear war?
Calculating the risk of Putin pressing the nuclear button is notoriously hard. He is unpredictable on purpose, as he uses a lot of political posturing to meet his goals. Moreover, NATO’s nuclear might and defence are far more sophisticated, robust, and rapid than Russia’s. As such, there are a growing number of experts who don’t think Putin would use a nuclear weapon against NATO. That being said, there is still a risk of Russia using a smaller tactical nuke against Ukraine.
However, many would prefer to take a slightly more risky route that will end the war sooner than a low-risk route that will drag the war out, as the total risk we are exposed to will be less.
So, yes, it might increase the risk of nuclear war right now, but counterintuitively, it might actually be the safest option we have.
Okay, but why now? Why has Biden withheld this potentially crucial bit of military aid until his successor lost to Trump?
Well, there are several reasons.
Firstly, Trump’s camp pushed the idea that Democrats are war hawks looking to profit from and perpetuate wars. While this is arguably not true in Ukraine’s case, this statement has a grain of truth. As a result, risking nuclear war just before an election might have had incredibly detrimental optics for the Democrats.
But secondly, now that we know Trump has won, Biden needs to do everything he can to ensure Trump doesn’t screw up this geopolitical nightmare!
Trump’s camp has heavily implied they will end the war swiftly by strong-arming Ukraine into ceding the territory they have lost to Russia, without any consequences for Putin. In fact, their stance seems to suggest that they will force Ukraine to abide by the neutrality agreements Russia tried to implement during the last peace talks, which bar Ukraine from joining NATO or even receiving military aid from any NATO country.
Bearing in mind that by invading Ukraine, Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum they signed with Ukraine in the ’90s to guarantee they wouldn’t be invaded if they gave up their old Soviet nuclear weapons, this would be a disaster. It would basically leave Ukraine defenceless in the face of a foe that doesn’t play by the rules.
So, if Trump gets his way, it would spell doom for Ukraine. It would also legitimise Russia’s westward expansion and embolden Putin to take even more extreme military moves against the West — which, you guessed it, could lead to nuclear war, massive economic damage, and, above all else, a dramatic loss of life.
This is why Biden’s move could be genius.
It enables Ukraine not only to defend the Russian territory they have been able to capture but maybe even expand this captured land. This would render Trump’s quick, dirty, and counterproductive end to the war unfeasible, as Russia will have to cede their land to force Ukraine neutrality, which they won’t do. Instead, it will twist Russia’s arm to let Ukraine keep Western military ties in return for its land back.
But Ukraine will have just two months to make these gains before Trump takes office and all hell breaks loose. The question is: has Biden given them enough time? Or is it too late for Ukraine to prevent being crushed by Russian expansionism and modern US isolationism?
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Source: BBC, Sky, BBC, Politico, Engelsberg Ideas