$110 Billion Is Simply Not Enough For OpenAI
The cash-eating machine can't be satiated that easily.
OpenAI recently announced it is raising $110 billion, including $30bn from SoftBank, $30bn from Nvidia, and $50bn from Amazon. That is more than double the $40 billion they raised last year in the largest private tech deal on record. It also valued the company at an astonishing $840 billion! But, OpenAI has also seemingly reduced its spending targets, with investors being told that it is targeting around $600 billion in total compute spend by 2030. That is significantly less than half its previous $1.4 trillion commitment. So, with more money coming in and less going out, is this the turning point for OpenAI? Can this turn OpenAI from a cash black hole into something even remotely sustainable? In short, no, not at all. $110 billion isn’t even going to touch the sides. Let me explain why.
Let’s start with the fact that, by OpenAI’s own estimates, this isn’t really enough. Back in September 2025, OpenAI dramatically increased its projected cash burn, stating that it expects to rack up losses of $115 billion between now and 2029. That is $80 billion, or 44% higher than their previous projections! It also means this record-breaking investment will only keep the fires going for a few years.
But, there is something telling here. OpenAI posted a loss of $5 billion in 2024 and $8 billion in 2025, meaning its losses are growing 60% each year. If you assume losses keep growing at the same rate of 60% per year, then between 2026 and 2029, OpenAI would rack up $118 billion of losses, which is almost identical to OpenAI’s own estimates.
Why is that telling? Well, the entire AI industry operates on the idea that scaling AI will eventually lead to sustainability and profitability. In other words, the industry assumes AI revenue will scale faster than the cost to develop and run AI models, so eventually, at a certain scale, they will break even. This argument of scale to profitability is foundational to the current frenzied AI investment drive.
But OpenAI’s assumption that their losses will keep growing at the same rate, rather than at a slower rate as before, strongly implies they know the scale-to-profit idea simply isn’t real. They know that scaling this way will actually push them further away from break-even.
